Ask Madden: Who Should the 49ers Start at QB Next Season?

The 49ers are a game away from the Super Bowl, but questions continue to hover over them as to what their long-term plans are at quarterback. Though rookie Brock Purdy has been impressive and earned the opportunity to face the Eagles this week in Philadelphia, the 49ers will have to decide in the offseason if Purdy is their guy going forward. It’s an especially intriguing question because the team had already chosen Trey Lance third overall in the 2021 draft to supplant veteran Jimmy Garoppolo at QB — that is before Lance and Garoppolo both went down with injuries.

Who Should The 49ers Start At QB Next Season?

In this version of the classic Gwyneth Paltrow movie Sliding Doors, we look at who the 49ers would have the most success with under center next season. Brock Purdy? Trey Lance? Or maybe even Jimmy Garoppolo back on a new deal? We shall use the crystal ball of Madden 23 to peer into the future to see who would lead the team best. This includes factoring in the financial considerations of each quarterback and how any money saved on one option can either help facilitate or hamper spending elsewhere on the roster.

Brock Purdy

2023 Cap Hit: $889,552

Top Free Agent Acquisitions:

• WR Sterling Shepard
• CB Kyle Fuller
• LE Bryce Huff
• WR Demarcus Robinson
• CB Tavon Young
• FS Andrew Wingard
• QB Daniel Jones

What About Trey? He’s been traded to the Saints for WR Van Jefferson, MLB Nephi Sewell, and a round 6 draft pick. Note: because Madden 23 will not allow you to trade injured players, this trade had to be executed in preseason when Lance was finally fully healed from his ankle injury.

Team Record: 10-7 (1st in division, #3 seed)

Brock Purdy Stats: 65% completion percentage, 3,680 yards, 28 TDs, 11 INTs

Top Rusher: Christian McCaffrey (1,052 yards, 13 TDs)

Top Receiver: Deebo Samuel (1,008 yards)

Where’s Jimmy? On the Panthers, who win their division at 10-7. He has a 63% completion percentage, 4,672 yards, 36 TDs, and 11 INTs.

How’s Trey? He’s backing up Jameis Winston on the Saints.

Who Wins The Super Bowl? Beat Cardinals 21-6 in a Wild Card game (Jimmy Garoppolo and the Panthers lose in the Wild Card round to the Giants, 19-17). They then beat the Giants 35-28 in the divisional round, beat the Cowboys (yet again) 27-24 in NFC Championship, and lose in the Super Bowl to the Bills, 24-16.

Season Analysis: All in all, Madden 23 seems to feel as if a full season of Brock Purdy can get the 49ers right back to where they are now. Despite losing to the Bills in the Super Bowl, Purdy certainly proves himself as the team’s quarterback of the future with a divisional title and a nice 2023 playoff run. The cap savings of having Mr. Irrelevant at such a key position allows the team to use that money elsewhere, including the curious decision of investing $10 million in Daniel Jones as a backup to Purdy. The team may come up a little short of their Super Bowl aspirations, but they are likely primed for another run or two with a developing quarterback who’s on a cheap rookie deal.

Trey Lance

Cap Hit: $9.3M

Top Free Agent Acquisitions:

• FS Devin McCourty
• CB A.J. Bouye
• CB Kyle Fuller
• CB Emmanuel Moseley
• WR Tre’Quan Smith
• CB Eli Apple
• FS Marcus Epps
• G Brian Winters
• QB Teddy Bridgewater

What About Brock? He’s traded to the Seahawks for TE Noah Fant, HB Deejay Dallas, and T Jake Curhan

Team Record: 4-13 (last in division)

Trey Lance Stats: 60% completion percentage, 3,524 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs

Top Rusher: Christian McCaffrey (1,042 yards, 10 TDs)

Top Receiver: Deebo Samuel (913 yards, 9 TDs)

Where’s Jimmy? He’s (still) on the Panthers, who finish first in the division at 12-5. He has a 65% completion percentage, 4,248 yards, 31 TDs and 10 INTs.

How’s Brock? In a neat reversal of fortune, he’s now backing up Daniel Jones in Seattle.

Who Wins The Super Bowl? After Jimmy G and the Panthers lose to the Falcons in the divisional round, 28-14, the weirdest Super Bowl perhaps ever played is a battle between Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota in which the Falcons beat the Raiders, 31-19.

Season Analysis: Madden 23 is fairly insistent that Trey Lance is likely not the answer in San Francisco. It would be hard not to pin a lot of the blame on him after a disastrous 4-13 season that sees the team fall all the way into the NFC West basement. Lance’s pedestrian production and alarming touchdown to interception rate is all the evidence Niners fans will need to call into question his abilities at the helm of the offense. To add insult to injury, they can only sit back and watch as the man they rejected, Jimmy Garoppolo, leads the Panthers to a NFC South title (as usual, just don’t ask Jimmy about the playoffs). Shout out to anyone who successfully predicts a Falcons-Raiders Super Bowl next season.

Jimmy Garoppolo

Cap Hit: $15M

Free Agent Acquisitions:

• CB Jonathan Jones
• FS Devin McCourty
• WR Sterling Shepard
• CB Emmanuel Moseley
• LE Larry Ogunjobi
• G Daryl Williams
• FS Matthias Farley
• LOLB Shaun Dion Hamilton

What about Trey and Brock? Trey Lance is traded to the Jets for WR Elijah Moore and RE Bradlee Anae. Brock Purdy is retained on the 49ers to be the backup for Jimmy G.

Team Record: 9-8 (1st in division, #4 seed)

Jimmy Garroppolo Stats: 63% completion percentage, 3,710 yards, 27 TDs, 8 INTs

Top Rusher: Christian McCaffrey (1,324 yards, 15 TDs)

Top Receiver: Brandon Aiyuk (1,181 yards)

How’s Trey? He’s now backing up Zach Wilson on the Jets.

Playoff Results: Beat Commanders 41-37 on Wild Card weekend; beat Cowboys (again!) 31-24 in divisional round; lose to Falcons 45-31 in NFC Championship game.

Who Wins The Super Bowl? Chiefs beat Falcons, 34-20

Season Analysis: Most Niners fans would likely tell you that Madden 23‘s prognostication for keeping Jimmy Garoppolo around another year and giving him the reins is quite in line with the rest of his tenure. It yields an up-and-down 9-8 season that sees the team coming out on top of a bad division, winning a couple games in the postseason (apologies to tortured Cowboys fans), but falling just short of a Super Bowl. As for Garoppolo’s own performance, it doesn’t look as if it would be that much better than Madden‘s vision for Trey Lance leading the team to the bottom of the division. Speaking of Lance, things don’t work out well for him in this scenario either because he’s stuck backing up Zach Wilson on the Jets.

Bottom Line

If Madden 23 is to be believed (and when has it ever steered us wrong before?), the 49ers’ best choice at quarterback for next season would appear to be Brock Purdy. His extremely low cap hit gives the team the most flexibility in acquiring free agents around him. Even though all three quarterbacks ultimately end up with similar stats at the end of the season, the team has the most wins and success in the playoffs with Purdy. This all despite the fact that Madden 23 still has Purdy rated as just a 65 OVR. A path with Jimmy Garoppolo instead at QB in 2023 would lead to a steady if not spectacular season that ends one round earlier in the playoffs than with Purdy. If the 49ers elect to move forward with Trey Lance as their starter in 2023 though, Madden 23 expects that would be a nightmare for the team that sees them dropping all the way to the bottom of the NFC West.